Re: AAT:A method to falsify

Phillip Bigelow (
13 Oct 1995 15:03:25 -0700

I wrote:

>Since I am no biologist (I was trained in geology and paleontology), I won't
>second-guess how this test for falsification could be conducted. I'll leave
>that to the physiologists. But here is a small (albeit incomplete) synopsis
>of how the experiment and computer model could be set up:

>1) Using the best-estimates for the masses (published estimates), compile
>the masses for a variety of living primates (humans inclusive). Include the
>estimates (including high and low extremes) for A. afarensis, the closest
>nearly complete hominid to the supposed "aquatic ape".

>2) Compile surface area/volume ratios for a statistically-significant sample
>(probably around 30 individuals per species) for all of the species in #1
>above. Make a best-estimate for A. afarensis.

>3) Compile body fat percentages for all species (or estimates there-of) from
>#1 above).

>4) Compile a range of water temperatures that the AA people think that the
>AA existed in. BE GENEROUS in favor of the AA people...we don't want to
>slip up with overly-cold water temps. Suggestions would be data from the
>Red Sea (which is quite warm) and some equatorial lakes.

>5)Using published data on mean body temps., and energy metabolisms of #1
>above, plug all the data into a heat-loss computer program (which will
>probably have to be written, unless the U.S. Navy has something). Calculate
>if a haired ape can exist in thermal equilibrium with ambient water temp.
> ^^^^^^^^
> THEN....
>Repeat the calculations, except remove the hair.

>Then, using various shaven primates, do real-world experiments.

>Do the real-world experiments and the computer model match up closely?
>Lastly, however the experiments come out, PUBLISH THE RESULTS.
> <pb>

I forgot the coup de grace, of course!
Once both experimental data and extrapolation curves from the computer
models are obtained, then we have a baseline to use in determining the
thermal equilibrium (or lack of equilibrium) of Hardy's and Morgan's
imaginary "aquatic ape". All we need is it's mass estimate that will be
provided by the aquatic ape proponents. However, see my next post regarding
this matter.